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Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads : Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs

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Abstract

This paper studies the interaction between monetary policy, financial markets, and the real economy. We develop a Bayesian framework to estimate proxy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) in which monetary policy shocks are identified by exploiting the information contained in high frequency data. For the Great Moderation period, we find that monetary policy shocks are key drivers of fluctuations in industrial output and corporate credit spreads, explaining about 20 percent of the volatility of these variables. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in credit spreads. We show that the failure to account for this endogenous reaction induces an attenuation bias in the response of all variables to monetary shocks.

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  • Dario Caldara & Edward P. Herbst, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads : Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-49
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.049
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    Keywords

    Bayesian Inference; Monetary policy; Vector Autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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