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Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?

Author

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  • Olivier Coibion

    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

We investigate the source of the high persistence in the Federal Funds Rate relative to the predictions of simple Taylor rules. While much of the literature assumes that this reflects interest-smoothing on the part of monetary policy-makers, an alternative explanation is that it represents persistent monetary policy shocks. Applying real-time data of the Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic forecasts, we document that the empirical evidence strongly favors the interestsmoothing explanation. This result obtains in nested specifications with higher order interest smoothing and persistent shocks, a feature missing in previous work. We also show that policy inertia is present in response to economic fluctuations not driven by exogenous monetary policy shocks. Finally, we argue that the predictability of future interest rates by Greenbook forecasts supports the policy inertia interpretation of historical monetary policy actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?," Working Papers 106, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:106
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    File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp106.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rules; interest rate smoothing; monetary policy shocks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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