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Testing the Structural Interpretation of the Price Puzzle with a Cost-Channel Model

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo

Abstract

We estimate a new-Keynesian DSGE model with the cost channel to assess its ability to replicate the price puzzle ie the inflationary impact of a monetary policy shock typically arising in VAR analysis. In order to correctly identify the monetary policy shock, we distinguish between a standard policy rate shifter and a shock to trend inflation ie the time-varying inflation target set by the Fed. While offering some statistical support to the cost channel, our estimated model clearly implies a negative inflation reaction to a tightening of monetary policy. We offer a discussion of the possible sources of mismatch between the VAR evidence and our own.
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  • Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Testing the Structural Interpretation of the Price Puzzle with a Cost-Channel Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 425-452, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:74:y:2012:i:3:p:425-452
    DOI: j.1468-0084.2011.00658.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Uusküla, Lenno, 2016. "Monetary transmission mechanism with firm turnover," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-18.
    2. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2016. "Can exchange rate pass-through explain the price puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 56-59.
    4. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2016-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Olaf Posch, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 6925, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.
    7. Ørjan Robstad, 2014. "House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models," Working Paper 2014/05, Norges Bank.
    8. repec:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:18:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(08), pages 1880-1887, December.
    10. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:189-209 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 42688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2016. "Monetary policy shocks and Cholesky VARs: an assessment for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 383-414, March.
    13. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and financial conditions: A Monte Carlo experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 282-303.
    14. Meixing Dai & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Central bank transparency with the cost channel," Working Papers of BETA 2013-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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