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Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations

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  • Zeno Enders

    (University of Heidelberg and CESifo)

  • Michael Kleemann

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Gernot J. Muller

    (University of Tübingen, CEPR, and CESifo)

Abstract

We assess the contribution of "undue optimism" (Pigou) to business-cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines long-run economic activity. We develop a new strategy to estimate the effects of optimism shocks - autonomous, but fundamentally unwarranted changes in the assessment of productivity. Specifically, we show that by including survey-based nowcast errors regarding current output growth in a VAR model, it is possible to identify optimism shocks. These shocks, in line with theory, generate negative nowcast errors, but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for about 30 percent of short-run fluctuations.
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Suggested Citation

  • Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot J. Muller, 2021. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 905-921, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:5:p:905-921
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00949
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    Cited by:

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    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Papers No 13/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Tim Willems, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 38-59, January.
    8. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    9. Nahiyan Azad & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "Market Shocks in the G7 Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 33-60, February.
    10. Benhima, Kenza & Poilly, Céline, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    11. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    12. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-01518467, HAL.
    13. Dées, Stephane & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Animal spirits, fundamental factors and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel & Sims, Eric R., 2022. "Identifying monetary policy shocks using the central bank’s information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    16. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Riccardo M. Masolo & Alessia Paccagnini, 2019. "Identifying Noise Shocks: A VAR with Data Revisions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2145-2172, December.
    18. Thierry U. Kame Babilla, 2024. "Bank‐lending channel of monetary policy transmission in WAEMU: An estimated DSGE model approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1277-1300, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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