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Information Frictions among Firms and Households

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  • Link, Sebastian

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Peichl, Andreas

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Roth, Christopher

    (University of Cologne)

  • Wohlfart, Johannes

    (University of Cologne)

Abstract

We survey samples of German firms and households to document novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among the two groups. First, firms' expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less dispersed than households', consistent with higher information frictions among households. Second, the degree of dispersion and the distance from expert forecasts varies more across groups of households than across groups of firms. Third, firms update their policy rate expectations less than households when provided with an expert forecast, consistent with holding stronger priors. Our results have implications for modeling choices, macroeconomic dynamics, and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Information Frictions among Firms and Households," IZA Discussion Papers 15090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15090
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    Cited by:

    1. Buchheim, Lukas & Dovern, Jonas & Krolage, Carla & Link, Sebastian, 2022. "Sentiment and firm behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 186-198.
    2. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 672, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023. "Local information and firm expectations about aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Vod Vilfort & Whitney Zhang, 2023. "Interpreting IV Estimators in Information Provision Experiments," Papers 2309.04793, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    5. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    6. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    7. Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Attention to the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 256, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    8. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Tukiainen, Janne & Blesse, Sebastian & Bohne, Albrecht & Giuffrida, Leonardo M. & Jääskeläinen, Jan & Luukinen, Ari & Sieppi, Antti, 2021. "What are the priorities of bureaucrats? Evidence from conjoint experiments with procurement officials," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-033, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2021. "Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," NBER Working Papers 29376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jonas Hennrich & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2023. "Who Reports the Mood in German Boardrooms? Evidence from the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 10571, CESifo.
    12. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers halshs-03351632, HAL.
    13. Zeno Enders & Franziska Hünnekes & Gernot Müller, 2022. "Firm Expectations and Economic Activity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2396-2439.
    14. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2023. "Cognitive constraints and economic incentives," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2023, Bank of Finland.
    15. Paul Scanlon, 2023. "A Model of Greedflation," Trinity Economics Papers tep1423, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    16. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Ropele, Tiziano & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Frache, Serafin & Meyer, Brent & Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings," IZA Discussion Papers 16305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary, 2023. "Sticky information and the Taylor principle," IMFS Working Paper Series 189, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    19. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers hal-03468918, HAL.
    20. Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
    21. Thiemo Fetzer & Ivan Yotzov, 2023. "(How) Do Electoral Surprises Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from a New Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10584, CESifo.
    22. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    23. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
    24. Ruediger Bachmann & Kai Carstensen & Stefan Lautenbacher & Martin Schneider, 2021. "Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 29430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    information frictions; expectation formation; firms; households; interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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