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Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money

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  • Hassan Afrouzi

Abstract

This paper studies how competition affects firms’ expectations in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with rational inattention and oligopolistic competition where firms acquire information about their competitors’ beliefs. In the model, firms with fewer competitors are less attentive to aggregate variables—a novel prediction supported by survey evidence. A calibrated version of the model matches the relationship between firms’ numbers of competitors and their uncertainty about aggregate inflation as a nontargeted moment. A quantitative exercise reveals that firms’ strategic inattention to aggregates significantly amplifies monetary nonneutrality and shifts output response disproportionately toward less competitive oligopolies by distorting relative prices.

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  • Hassan Afrouzi, 2024. "Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(10), pages 3378-3420.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/730201
    DOI: 10.1086/730201
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    3. Frache, Serafin & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Turen, Javier, 2024. "Belief-dependent pricing decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Olivier Wang & Iván Werning, 2022. "Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2815-2849, August.
    5. Ivan Yotzov & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites, 2024. "The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation," Discussion Papers 2425, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    7. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 529-544.
    8. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    9. Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "The attention trap: Rational inattention, inequality, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Zorn, Peter, 2016. "Investment under Rational Inattention: Evidence from US Sectoral Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," Working Papers 2021-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Nov 2021.
    12. McCloud, Nadine, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 98-134.
    13. Hassan Afrouzi & Choongryul Yang, 2021. "Dynamic Rational Inattention and the Phillips Curve," CESifo Working Paper Series 8840, CESifo.
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    15. Ivan Werning, 2018. "Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness," 2018 Meeting Papers 1029, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Gondhi, Naveen, 2023. "Rational inattention, misallocation, and the aggregate economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 50-75.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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