IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/1085.html

The speed of firm response to inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Yotzov

    (Bank of England)

  • Nicholas Bloom

    (Stanford University)

  • Philip Bunn

    (Bank of England)

  • Paul Mizen

    (King’s College London)

  • Gregory Thwaites

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

This paper analyses the response of firms to monthly CPI inflation releases using high-frequency data from a large economy-wide business survey. CPI inflation perceptions respond very quickly, in a matter of hours after the release. We also find that firms’ expected own-price growth has a strong positive correlation with changes in CPI inflation, particularly for increases in inflation. This sensitivity is stronger when inflation is high. Firms are also more responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated and appear to have had a supply-side view of the economy since 2022: higher aggregate inflation leads to lower expected sales volume growth and higher expected cost growth. Firms also seem to anticipate the monetary policy response, as positive inflation changes are associated with higher expected borrowing rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Yotzov & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites, 2024. "The speed of firm response to inflation," Bank of England working papers 1085, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2024/the-speed-of-firm-response-to-inflation.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Melnick, Rafi & Kutai, Ari, 2023. "Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16334, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Enders, Zeno & Hünnekes, Franziska & Müller, Gernot J., 2019. "Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from german firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 45-63.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    4. Daniel J. Lewis & Christos Makridis & Karel Mertens, 2019. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?," Working Papers 1906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 17 Jan 2020.
    5. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    6. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    7. Oliver Pfauti, 2023. "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges," Papers 2308.09480, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    8. Binder, Carola Conces, 2021. "Household expectations and the release of macroeconomic statistics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    9. Lena Anayi & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "Firming up price inflation," POID Working Papers 058, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    11. Korenok Oleg & David Munro & Jiayi Chen, 2022. "Inflation and Attention Thresholds," Working Papers 2202, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    12. ETHAN M.L. McCLURE & VITALIIA YAREMKO & OLIVIER COIBION & YURIY GORODNICHENKO, 2025. "The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 683-716, June.
    13. Ursel Baumann & Annalisa Ferrando & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Timo Reinelt, 2024. "SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms," NBER Working Papers 32504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    16. Ricardo Reis, 2023. "Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 47-51, May.
    17. Hassan Afrouzi, 2024. "Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(10), pages 3378-3420.
    18. Alberto Binetti & Francesco Nuzzi & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2024. "People's Understanding of Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    20. Gareth Anderson & Becky Maule, 2014. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 148-162.
    21. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    2. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktuğ & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Firms' Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," CESifo Working Paper Series 12210, CESifo.
    3. Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2025. "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 33858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2025. "Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting?," CESifo Working Paper Series 12215, CESifo.
    6. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
    8. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    10. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Dräger, Lena, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-713, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    13. Meyer, Brent H. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2025. "Unit cost expectations: Firms’ perspectives on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Michael Weber & Bernardo Candia & Hassan Afrouzi & Tiziano Ropele & Rodrigo Lluberas & Serafin Frache & Brent Meyer & Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dimitris Georgarakos & Olivier Coibion & Geoff, 2025. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 229-264, January.
    15. Natalie Burr, 2025. "Do inflation expectations respond to monetary policy? An empirical analysis for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 1109, Bank of England.
    16. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 3-39, March.
    17. Francesco D'Acunto & Janet Gao & Lu Liu & Kai Lu & Zhengwei Wang & Jun Yang, 2025. "Subjective Expectations and Financial Intermediation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11780, CESifo.
    18. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Martha Elena Delgado & Juan Herre√±o & Marc Hofstetter & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," Documentos CEDE 21114, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.