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Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation

Author

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  • Ricardo Reis

Abstract

With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals), it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Reis, 2023. "Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 47-51, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:47-51
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231033
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    Cited by:

    1. Hogen, Yoshihiko & Okuma, Ryoichi, 2025. "The anchoring of inflation expectations in Japan: A learning-approach perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Michael Ehrmann, 2026. "Trust in Central Banks," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 492-504, February.
    3. Philippe Andrade & Michael Wicklein, 2025. "Why Have Inflation Expectations Surged Recently? A Historical Perspective," Current Policy Perspectives 25-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Neil Mehrotra & Hyunseung Oh & Julio L. Ortiz, 2025. "Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel," International Finance Discussion Papers 1424, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    6. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ivan Yotzov & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites, 2024. "The speed of firm response to inflation," Bank of England working papers 1085, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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