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Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation

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  • Reis, Ricardo

Abstract

With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals) it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus, and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Reis, Ricardo, 2023. "Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118130, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118130
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/118130/
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    1. Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: Measurement and Policy Responses," Discussion Papers 2301, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
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      JEL classification:

      • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
      • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
      • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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