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Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel

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Abstract

Using industry-level panel data and plausibly exogenous variation in supply conditions, we estimate the elasticity of retail price margins with respect to inventories along the retailer's optimal pricing curve. We find that this elasticity is negative and statistically significant, implying that lower finished-good inventories lead to higher price margins. We assess the implications of this channel for inflation dynamics within a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) framework that links inventories to retailers' markup behavior. Incorporating the inventory-sales ratio into the NKPC markedly improves the model's empirical fit and helps account for two notable recent inflation episodes: the missing disinflation of 2009â 2011 and the COVID-era surge.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Mehrotra & Hyunseung Oh & Julio L. Ortiz, 2025. "Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel," International Finance Discussion Papers 1424, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1424
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2025.1424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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