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Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi

Author

Listed:
  • Oguz Atuk
  • Cem Aysoy
  • Mustafa Utku Ozmen
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinde TUFE enflasyonunun cikti acigina ne kadar duyarli oldugu sorusuna cevap aranmaktadir. Bu amacla, TUFE�yi olusturan COICOP 5-basamakli 152 alt grup icin Phillips egrileri tahmin edilmistir. Boylelikle cikti aciginin istatistiki ve iktisadi olarak anlamli bir sekilde etkiledigi gruplar belirlenmistir. Ampirik bulgular enflasyon sepetinin yaklas�k ucte birinin cikti acigindan etkilendigini gostermistir. Cikti acigina duyarli olmayan gruplarda ise enflasyonun ithal maliyetlerle oldukca yakin bir iliski sergiledigi gozlenmistir. Sonuclar, Turkiye�de enflasyonun kalici olarak dusurulebilmesi icin cevrim karsiti (countercyclical) politikalarin tek basina yeterli olmayabilecegine isaret etmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1437
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gap; Inflation; Phillips curve; CPI; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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