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Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so

Author

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  • Michael F. Bryan
  • Brent Meyer

Abstract

Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices - sticky and flexible - provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions?economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may be useful when trying to gauge where inflation is heading.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer, 2010. "Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2010:i:may19:n:2010-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye’de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Ádám Reiff & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Sticky Price Inflation Index: An Alternative Core Inflation Measure," MNB Working Papers 2013/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Choi, Chi-Young & O'Sullivan, Róisín, 2013. "Heterogeneous response of disaggregate inflation to monetary policy regime change: The role of price stickiness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1814-1832.
    4. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    5. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Macallan, Clare & Taylor, Tim & O'Grady, Tom, 2011. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 100-110.
    7. Ivan Petrella & Raffaele Rossi & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Monetary Policy with Sectoral Trade-offs," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 233, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    8. Harimohan, Rashmi, 2012. "How has the risk to inflation from inflation expectations evolved?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 114-123.
    9. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Millard, Stephen & O'Grady, Tom, 2012. "What do sticky and flexible prices tell us?," Bank of England working papers 457, Bank of England.
    11. Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich & M. Henry Linder, 2013. "The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Aug).
    12. James B. Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue July, pages 223-234.

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