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Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so

Author

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  • Michael F. Bryan
  • Brent Meyer

Abstract

Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices - sticky and flexible - provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions?economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may be useful when trying to gauge where inflation is heading.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer, 2010. "Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2010(02), pages 1-6, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2010:i:may19:n:2010-2
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201002
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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Robert L. Hetzel, 2018. "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Paper 18-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Ivan Petrella & Raffaele Rossi & Emiliano Santoro, 2019. "Monetary Policy with Sectoral Trade‐Offs," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 55-88, January.
    5. Ádám Reiff & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Sticky Price Inflation Index: An Alternative Core Inflation Measure," MNB Working Papers 2013/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    6. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    7. James B. Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(July), pages 223-234.
    8. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2019. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Time-Varying Vector Auto-Regression with Residual Stochastic Volatility Approach," Borradores de Economia 1093, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Macallan, Clare & Taylor, Tim & O'Grady, Tom, 2011. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 100-110.
    11. Aleksandra Halka & Karol Szafranek, 2017. "Determinants of low inflation in emerging, small open economy. Comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches," EcoMod2017 10560, EcoMod.
    12. Saeed Zaman, 2019. "Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    13. Harimohan, Rashmi, 2012. "How has the risk to inflation from inflation expectations evolved?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 114-123.
    14. Steven Ambler, 2016. "Toward the Next Renewal of the Inflation-Control Agreement: Questions Facing the Bank of Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 453, July.
    15. Sergi Lanau & Adrian Robles & Frederik G Toscani, 2018. "Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach," IMF Working Papers 2018/106, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Choi, Chi-Young & O'Sullivan, Róisín, 2013. "Heterogeneous response of disaggregate inflation to monetary policy regime change: The role of price stickiness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1814-1832.
    17. Millard, Stephen & O'Grady, Tom, 2012. "What do sticky and flexible prices tell us?," Bank of England working papers 457, Bank of England.
    18. M. Henry Linder & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2013. "The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Aug).

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