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Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience

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  • Hakan Kara
  • Fethi ÃÄünç

Abstract

Using a vector autoregression model, we show that the pass-through from imported inflation to domestic inflation has weakened substantially and slowed after the adoption of inflation targeting in Turkey. We argue that this finding is due mainly to several featuresâsuch as enhanced credibility of the central bank, changing behavior of the exchange rate, and a shift in expectation formationâpossibly acquired by the implementation of a successful inflation-targeting regime. These observations suggest that adopting an inflation-targeting regime in itself may help to reduce exchange rate pass-through.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Kara & Fethi ÃÄünç, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 52-66, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:44:y:2008:i:6:p:52-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    2. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    4. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    5. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
    6. Douglas Steel & Alan King, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-through: The Role of Regime Changes," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 301-322.
    7. Hakan Kara & Hande Küçük-Tuger & Ümit Özlale & Burç Tuger & Eray M. Yücel, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Pass-Through: Evidence From The Turkish Economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 206-225, April.
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