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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?


  • Hakan Kara
  • Fethi Ogunc


Using a vector auto-regression (VAR) setup, we estimate the pass-through from exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in Turkey, and produce some stylized facts regarding the degree and the adjustment speed of the pass-through on several price measures. Estimations for two distinct periods-before and after the adoption of floating exchange rate regime-yield both good and bad news. The good news is, our impulse responses confirm the common conjecture that pass-through has weakened and slowed down after the adoption of floating exchange rate regime. The bad news is, surprisingly low pass-through in recent years partly owes to the fact that exchange rate shocks were not persistent in direction. In other words, total pass-through might have been sizable had the economy been hit by one-sided shocks such as a persistent depreciation.

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  • Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0510

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    2. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye’de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
    3. Erdem Basci & Özgür Özel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 475-499 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    5. Alpaslan, Baris & Demirel, Baki, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect on Prices and Inflation Targeting: A Comparison of Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 53726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay, 2008. "Inflation Targeting in Turkey," Working Papers 445, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    8. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Comert, 2015. "Global Constraints on Central Banking:The case of Turkey," Working papers wpaper111, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    10. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Malik Qasim KHASAWNEH, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary policy on Consumption and Investment in Jordan during (1989-2013)," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 155-164, September.
    12. World Bank, 2008. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8017, The World Bank.
    13. Saygın Şahinöz & Bedriye Saraçoğlu, 2011. "How do firms adjust their prices in Turkey? Micro-level evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 601-621, May.
    14. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    15. Dincer Dedeoglu & Huseyin Kaya, 2015. "Model Belirsizligi Altinda Doviz Kurunun Enflasyona Etkisi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(2), pages 79-93.
    16. Alper, Emre & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2009. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 18426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Murat Karagoz & Baki Demirel & Emre Guneser Bozdag, 2012. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Pass-Through Effect?," European Journal of Economic and Political Studies, Fatih University, vol. 5(2), pages 21-33.
    18. Hatipoglu, Ozan & Alper, C. Emre, 2007. "Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 7107, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008.
    19. Khemiri, Rim & Ali, Mohamed Sami Ben, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation dynamics in Tunisia: A Markov-switching approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-30.
    20. repec:asi:ajemod:2018:p:8-20 is not listed on IDEAS

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