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Doviz Kuru ve Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Enflasyona Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Kara
  • Fethi Ogunc

Abstract

[TR] Bu calisma, alternatif modeller kullanarak Turkiye’de doviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarinin cekirdek tuketici fiyatlari (islenmemis gida ve alkollu icecekler-tutun haric TUFE) uzerindeki etkisini (geciskenlik etkisi) incelemektedir. 2002-2011 donemi icin yapilan tahminler, geciskenligin bir yillik zaman diliminde her iki degisken icin de ortalama yuzde 15 civarinda olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica bulgular doviz kuru ile tuketici fiyatlari arasindaki iliskinin zaman icinde azalmaya devam ettigini gostermektedir. [EN] We analyze the pass-through effect from exchange rates and import prices to core consumer prices (CPI excluding unprocessed food and alcoholic beverages-tobacco) in Turkey using several alternative models. Estimates through 2002-2011 period suggest that one year pass-through is around 15 percent for both variables. Moreover, our findings indicate that the exchange rate pass-through has been weakening through time.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2011. "Doviz Kuru ve Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Enflasyona Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1114, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1114
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2011. "Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 15-28.
    2. Elif C. Arbatli, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Looking for Asymmetries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(2), pages 85-124.
    3. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    5. Hakan Kara & Fethi ÃÄünç, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 52-66, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Turkey After the Global Crisis," Working Papers 1217, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
    3. Dincer Dedeoglu & Huseyin Kaya, 2015. "Model Belirsizligi Altinda Doviz Kurunun Enflasyona Etkisi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(2), pages 79-93.
    4. A. Kara, 2013. "Monetary Policy after the Global Crisis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 51-74, March.
    5. Ülke, Volkan, 2015. "The Degree of Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 75633, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Dec 2015.
    6. Oguz Atuk & Fethi Ogunc & M. Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Turkiye’de Uretici ve Tuketici Fiyatlari Arasindaki Iliski Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1321, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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