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Doviz Kuru ve Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Enflasyona Etkisi

  • Hakan Kara
  • Fethi Ogunc

[TR] Bu calisma, alternatif modeller kullanarak Turkiye’de doviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarinin cekirdek tuketici fiyatlari (islenmemis gida ve alkollu icecekler-tutun haric TUFE) uzerindeki etkisini (geciskenlik etkisi) incelemektedir. 2002-2011 donemi icin yapilan tahminler, geciskenligin bir yillik zaman diliminde her iki degisken icin de ortalama yuzde 15 civarinda olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica bulgular doviz kuru ile tuketici fiyatlari arasindaki iliskinin zaman icinde azalmaya devam ettigini gostermektedir. [EN] We analyze the pass-through effect from exchange rates and import prices to core consumer prices (CPI excluding unprocessed food and alcoholic beverages-tobacco) in Turkey using several alternative models. Estimates through 2002-2011 period suggest that one year pass-through is around 15 percent for both variables. Moreover, our findings indicate that the exchange rate pass-through has been weakening through time.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1114.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1114
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  1. Hakan Kara & Fethi Öğünç, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 52-66, November.
  2. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  3. Elif C. Arbatli, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Looking for Asymmetries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(2), pages 85-124.
  4. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
  5. Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2011. "Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 15-28.
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