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Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi

Listed author(s):
  • Fethi Ogunc
  • Cagri Sarikaya

In this study, an output gap measure is derived for the Turkish economy using an estimated New Keynesian model. Considering the ongoing structural transformation during the last decade, the model is estimated for 2002-2010 period using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that output, which reached a trough in the first quarter of 2009 due to the global crisis, has not returned back to its potential level as of the third quarter of 2010. Below-potential level of output for two subsequent years after the crisis has not only provided striking evidence on the depth of the crisis, but also emerged as a major factor exerting downward pressure on inflation during this period. On the other hand, the results point out that the identification of domestic and external drivers of aggregate demand has a critical role for an effective demand management in monetary policy focusing on price stability.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Yayinlar/Central+Bank+Review/Central+Bank+Review/2011/Sayi+11-2/
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Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 15-28

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Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:11:y:2011:i:2:p:15-28
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  1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  2. Yasuo Hirose & Saori Naganuma, 2010. "Structural Estimation Of The Output Gap: A Bayesian Dsge Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 864-879, October.
  3. Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of the Output Gap," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 18-32, January.
  4. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  5. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  6. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
  7. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2010. "Vietnam; Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 10/149, International Monetary Fund.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter," IMF Working Papers 10/285, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  10. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
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