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Structural Estimation Of The Output Gap: A Bayesian Dsge Approach

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  • YASUO HIROSE
  • SAORI NAGANUMA

Abstract

"We estimate the output gap that is consistent with a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where the output gap is defined as a deviation of output from its flexible-price equilibrium, using Bayesian methods. Our output gap illustrates the U.S. business cycles well, compared with other estimates. We find that the main source of the output gap movements is the demand shocks, but that the productivity shocks contributed to the stable output gap in the late 1990s. The robustness analysis shows that the estimated output gap is sensitive to the specification for monetary policy rules." ("JEL" E30, E32, C11) Copyright (c) 2009 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Saori Naganuma, 2010. "Structural Estimation Of The Output Gap: A Bayesian Dsge Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 864-879, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:48:y:2010:i:4:p:864-879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petre Caraiani, 2009. "An Estimation of Output Gap in Romanian Economy Using the DSGE Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(4), pages 366-379.
    2. YANO Koiti, 2009. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Under a Liquidity Trap and Self-organizing State Space Modeling," ESRI Discussion paper series 206, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. YANO Koiti, 2010. "Time-varying Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," ESRI Discussion paper series 231, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2011. "Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 15-28.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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