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How optimal is US monetary policy?

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  • Chen, Xiaoshan
  • Kirsanova, Tatiana
  • Leith, Campbell

Abstract

Using a small-scale microfounded DSGE model with Markov switching in shock variances and policy parameters, we show that the data-preferred description of US monetary policy is a time-consistent targeting rule with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s. However, the Fed lost its conservatism temporarily in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash, and again following the 2000 dot-com crash and has not subsequently regained it. The high inflation of the 1970s would have been avoided had the Fed been able to commit, even without the appointment of Paul Volcker or the reduction in shock volatilities.

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  • Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:96-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; Interest rate rules; Optimal monetary policy; Great moderation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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