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Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models

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  • Blake, Andrew P.
  • Zampolli, Fabrizio

Abstract

In this paper we consider the optimal quadratic control problem of Markov-switching linear rational expectation models. These models are general and flexible tools for modelling not only regime but also model or parameter uncertainty. We show, first, how to find the solution of a Markov-switching linear rational expectation model. Based on this solution we then show how to apply dynamic programming to find the optimal time-consistent policy and the resulting Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. Suitable modifications of the algorithm allow to deal with the (non-RE) case in which the policymaker and the private sector hold different beliefs or probabilities over regime change. We also show how the optimisation procedure can be employed to obtain the optimal policy under commitment. As an illustration we compute the optimal policy in a small open economy subject to stochastic structural breaks in some of its key parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Blake, Andrew P. & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2011. "Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1626-1651, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:1626-1651
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    2. Jason Choi & Andrew Foerster, . "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    4. Garreth Rule, 2012. "Collateral management in central bank policy operations," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 31.
    5. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
    6. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    7. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    8. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    9. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Garreth Rule, 2011. "Issuing central bank securities," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 30.

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