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Model uncertainty and monetary policy

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  • Richard Dennis

Abstract

Model uncertainty has the potential to change importantly how monetary policy should be conducted, making it an issue that central banks cannot ignore. In this paper, I use a standard new Keynesian business cycle model to analyze the behavior of a central bank that conducts policy with discretion while fearing that its model is misspecified. I begin by showing how to solve linear-quadratic robust Markov-perfect Stackelberg problems where the leader fears that private agents form expectations using the misspecified model. Next, I exploit the connection between robust control and uncertainty aversion to present and interpret my results in terms of the distorted beliefs held by the central bank, households, and firms. My main results are as follows. First, the central bank's pessimism leads it to forecast future outcomes using an expectations operator that, relative to rational expectations, assigns greater probability to extreme inflation and consumption outcomes. Second, the central bank's skepticism about its model causes it to move forcefully to stabilize inflation following shocks. Finally, even in the absence of misspecification, policy loss can be improved if the central bank implements a robust policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dennis, 2007. "Model uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2007-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tillmann Peter, 2009. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Conservatism? Robustness and the Delegation of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
    2. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(303), pages 486-504, July.
    3. Joshua Congdon-Hohman & Anil Nathan & Justin Svec, 2013. "Student Uncertainty and Major Choice," Working Papers 1301, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    4. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Ricardo Macedo, 2008. "Challenges on Inflation Targeting," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807111431320, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Giese, Guido & Wagner, Helmut, 2009. "A New Keynesian Model with Endogenous Frictions," Discussion Paper Series a520, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Svec, Justin, 2012. "Optimal fiscal policy with robust control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 349-368.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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