Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty
How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy? The author discusses some recent approaches that can be used for that purpose under two alternative scenarios: (i) the policy-maker has one reference model for choosing policy but cannot take a stand as to how that model is misspecified, and (ii) the policy-maker, being uncertain about the economy's true structure, entertains multiple distinct models of the economy. The author shows how these approaches can be implemented in practice using as benchmark models simplified versions of Fuhrer and Moore (1995) and Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005).
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haluk Ergin & Faruk Gul, 2003.
"A Subjective Theory of Compound Lotteries,"
506439000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Haluk Ergin & Faruk Gul, 2004. "A subjective theory of compound lotteries," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 152, Econometric Society.
- Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001.
"Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy,"
0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
- Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
- Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
- Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005.
"A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity,"
Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November.
- Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2002. "A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Apr 2003.
- Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
- Gino Cateau, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 05-6, Bank of Canada.
- Onatski, Alexei & Williams, Noah, 2002.
"Modeling model uncertainty,"
Working Paper Series
0169, European Central Bank.
- Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2004.
"The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 978-998, November.
- Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2002. "The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy," Technical Reports 92, Bank of Canada.
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-39, March.
- Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:111-44 is not listed on IDEAS
- Engert, Walter & Selody, Jack, 1998. "Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism," Staff Working Papers 98-7, Bank of Canada.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.