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Optimal policy and Taylor rule cross-checking under parameter uncertainty

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  • Bursian Dirk

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt/Main, Germany)

  • Roth Markus

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt/Main, Germany)

Abstract

We examine whether the robustifying nature of Taylor rule cross-checking under model uncertainty carries over to the case of parameter uncertainty. Adjusting monetary policy based on this kind of cross-checking can improve the outcome for the monetary authority. This, however, crucially depends on the relative welfare weight that is attached to the output gap and also the degree of monetary policy commitment. We find that Taylor rule cross-checking is on average able to improve losses when the monetary authority only moderately cares about output stabilization and when policy is set in a discretionary way.

Suggested Citation

  • Bursian Dirk & Roth Markus, 2014. "Optimal policy and Taylor rule cross-checking under parameter uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 301-324, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:24:n:7
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2012-0127
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Acocella, "undated". "Forward guidance announcements and policy effectiveness," Working Papers 124/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e Modelli per l'Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza MEMOTEF.
    2. Dirk Bursian, 2017. "Solving RE models with discontinuous policy rules – an application to minimum wage setting in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(15), pages 1121-1126, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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