IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2012_22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robustifying optimal monetary policy using simple rules as cross-checks

Author

Listed:
  • Pelin Ilbas

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • Øistein Røisland

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Tommy Sveen

    (BI Norwegian Business School)

Abstract

There are two main approaches to modelling monetary policy; simple instrument rules and optimal policy. We propose an alternative that combines the two by extending the loss function with a term penalizing deviations from a simple rule. We analyze the properties of the modified loss function by considering three different models for the US economy. The choice of the weight on the simple rule determines the trade-off between optimality and robustness. We show that by placing some weight on a simple Taylor-type rule in the loss function, one can prevent disastrous outcomes if the model is not a correct representation of the underlying economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2012. "Robustifying optimal monetary policy using simple rules as cross-checks," Working Paper 2012/22, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/Papers/Working-Papers/2012/WP-201222/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Cross-checking optimal monetary policy with information from the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 204-207.
    2. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
    3. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    4. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper 2013/04, Norges Bank.
    2. Szabolcs Deák & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Joseph Pearlman, 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1219, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    3. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    4. Carl E. Walsh, 2015. "Day Two Keynote Address: Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 295-352, September.
    5. Carl E. Walshn, 2016. "Goals versus Rules as Central Bank Preformance Measures," Book Chapters, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    6. Carl Walsh, 2015. "Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 5293, CESifo.
    7. Bursian Dirk & Roth Markus, 2014. "Optimal policy and Taylor rule cross-checking under parameter uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. David H. Papell & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & Ruxandra Prodan, 2016. "Policy Rule Legislation in Practice," Book Chapters, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    2. Hinterlang, Natascha & Tänzer, Alina, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning," Discussion Papers 51/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
    4. Carl Walsh, 2015. "Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 5293, CESifo.
    5. Bodenstein, Martin & Zhao, Junzhu, 2020. "Employment, wages and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 77-96.
    6. Bursian Dirk & Roth Markus, 2014. "Optimal policy and Taylor rule cross-checking under parameter uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    8. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    9. Gerson Nhapulo & João Nicolau, 2017. "Assessing Nonlinear Dynamics of Central Bank Reaction Function: The Case of Mozambique," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 28-51, March.
    10. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    11. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2016. "Does Fed policy reveal a ternary mandate?," Working Papers 16-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," Working Papers hal-01357870, HAL.
    13. Levin, Andrew T., 2014. "The design and communication of systematic monetary policy strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 52-69.
    14. Singh, Ajay Pratap & Nikolaou, Michael, 2014. "Optimal rules for central bank interest rates subject to zero lower bound," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-67.
    15. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. Hart, Janine & Clemens, Marius, 2019. "A search and matching approach to business-cycle migration in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203659, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(S1), pages 21-49, September.
    18. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 4-17.
    20. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2010. "A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/183, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model uncertainty; optimal control; simple rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.