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Robustifying optimal monetary policy using simple rules as cross-checks

  • Pelin Ilbas


    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Øistein Røisland


    (Norges Bank)

  • Tommy Sveen


    (BI Norwegian Business School)

There are two main approaches to modelling monetary policy; simple instrument rules and optimal policy. We propose an alternative that combines the two by extending the loss function with a term penalizing deviations from a simple rule. We analyze the properties of the modified loss function by considering three different models for the US economy. The choice of the weight on the simple rule determines the trade-off between optimality and robustness. We show that placing some weight on a simple Taylor-type rule in the loss function, one can prevent disastrous outcomes if the model is not a correct representation of the underlying economy.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 245.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201311-245
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  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 16654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  3. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and robust rules for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2010-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
  5. Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Cross-checking optimal monetary policy with information from the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 204-207.
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