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Robust Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty and Inflation Persistence

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  • Li Qin
  • Moïse SIDIROPOULOS
  • Eleftherios Spyromitros

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the preference for ro- bustness of central bank (when it fears that its model is misspecified), the inflation persistence and the output cost of disinflation. Using a simple monetary game model in which higher preference for robustness of central bank is positively associated with the inflation persistence and thus nega- tively with the speed of disinflation, this paper shows that the output cost of disinflation is higher when the less the central bank believes that its reference model is robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Qin & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2009. "Robust Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers of BETA 2009-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2009-09
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    Cited by:

    1. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, June.
    2. André, Marine Charlotte & Dai, Meixing, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 281-296.
    3. Meixing Dai, 2020. "La réponse de la BCE face à la pandémie de Covid-19," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 42(1), pages 5-14, July.
    4. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2020. "Progressive taxation and human capital as determinants of inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 82-97.
    5. Bolat, Süleyman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2017. "Testing the inflation rates in MENA countries: Evidence from quantile regression approach and seasonal unit root test," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1089-1095.
    6. Li Qin & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2016. "Robustness of Optimal Interest Rate Rules in an Open Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 29-46.
    7. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
    8. Mehdi Hajamini, 2019. "Asymmetric Causality Between Inflation and Uncertainty: Evidences from 33 Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 287-309, June.
    9. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    10. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Inflation persistence: The path of labor market structural reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 317-322.
    11. Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros & Panagiotis Tsintzos, 2017. "Public investment, inflation persistence and central bank independence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(6), pages 976-986, November.
    12. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2020. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers hal-03008144, HAL.
    13. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model uncertainty; Robust control; Minmax policies; Inflation persistence; Sacrifice ratio.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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