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Optimal monetary policy in Markov-switching models with rational expectations agents

  • Andrew P Blake
  • Fabrizio Zampolli

In this paper we consider the optimal control problem of models with Markov regime shifts and forward-looking agents. These models are very general and flexible tools for modelling model uncertainty. An algorithm is devised to compute the solution of a linear rational expectations model with random parameters or regime shifts. This algorithm can also be applied in the optimisation of any arbitrary instrument rule. A second algorithm computes the time-consistent policy and the resulting Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. Similar methods can be easily employed to compute the optimal policy under commitment. Furthermore, the algorithms can also handle the case in which the policymaker and the private sector hold different beliefs. We apply these methods to compute the optimal (non-linear) monetary policy in a small open economy subject to random structural breaks in some of its key parameters.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 298.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:298
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  1. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
  2. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Albert Marcet & Ramon Marimon, 2011. "Recursive Contracts," CEP Discussion Papers dp1055, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Richard Dennis & Ulf Soderstrom, 2002. "How important is precommitment for monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2002-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133.
  7. Richard Dennis, 2001. "Optimal policy in rational-expectations models: new solution algorithms," Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  10. repec:cup:macdyn:v:8:y:2004:i:1:p:27-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Fabrizio Zampolli, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: the response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Bank of England working papers 297, Bank of England.
  12. Arnulfo Rodríguez & Fidel González & Jesús R. González García, 2007. "Uncertainty about the Persistence of Cost-Push Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority," Working Papers 2007-05, Banco de México.
  13. Fershtman, Chaim, 1989. "Fixed rules and decision rules : Time consistency and subgame perfection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 191-194, September.
  14. Gonzalez F. & Rodriguez A. & Gonzalez-Garcia J.R., 2005. "Uncertainty about the Persistence of Periods with Large Price Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 402, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  16. Andrew P. Blake, 2004. "Analytic Derivatives for Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 77-96, 08.
  17. William Roberds, 1986. "Models of policy under stochastic replanning," Staff Report 104, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Swanson, Eric T., 2004. "Signal Extraction And Non-Certainty-Equivalence In Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 27-50, February.
  19. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-38.
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