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Discretionary Policy and Multiple Equilibria in LQ RE Models

  • Andrew Blake

    (Bank of England)

  • Tatiana Kirsanova

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

We study discretionary equilibria in dynamic linear-quadratic rational expectations models. In contrast to the assumptions that pervade this literature we show that these models do have multiple equilibria in some situations. We investigate general properties of discretionary equilibria. We demonstrate that for multiple equilibria to exist, models must have some `history dependence' that implies sluggish adjustment. This creates possibility to have different but mutually consistent beliefs of economic agents about the future speed of stabilization. Multiple equilibria are likely to occur, in particular if there are complementarities in the model. We demonstrate the existence of multiple discretionary equilibria by example. In a simple New Keynesian model of optimal monetary policy, but with fiscal solvency constraint, monetary policy can be either `active' or `passive' in the sense of Leeper (1991), depending on the strength of fiscal control of debt. There is an intermediate strength of fiscal control when both active and passive policies are possible.

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Paper provided by Exeter University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 0813.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:0813
Contact details of provider: Postal: Streatham Court, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4PU
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  13. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 2009. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521104609.
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  27. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2004. "Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity, and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1513-1553.
  28. Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Complementarities and Games: New Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 4742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
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