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Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models

  • Roger E.A. Farmer
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

We develop a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be determinate in a class of forward-looking Markov-switching rational expectations models, and we develop an algorithm to check these conditions in practice. We use three examples, based on the new Keynesian model of monetary policy, to illustrate our technique. Our work connects applied econometric models of Markov switching with forward-looking rational expectations models and allows an applied researcher to construct the likelihood function for models in this class over a parameter space that includes a determinate region and an indeterminate region. .

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2009-05.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2009-05
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  1. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor principle," Research Working Paper RWP 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment," Working Paper 2008-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Working Papers 11212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  6. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
  7. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model," Working Paper 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  11. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  12. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  13. Andrew P Blake & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in Markov-switching models with rational expectations agents," Bank of England working papers 298, Bank of England.
  14. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  15. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
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