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Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients

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  • Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel

Abstract

In this paper, we formulate and solve a New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy rules whose coefficients are time-varying and interdependent. We implement time variation in the policy rules by specifying coefficients that are logistic functions of correlated latent factors and propose a solution method that allows for these characteristics. The paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the policy rules with time-varying coefficients, endogeneity, and stochastic volatility in a limited-information framework. Results show that monetary policy switches regime more frequently than fiscal policy, and that there is a non-negligible degree of interdependence between policies. Policy experiments reveal that contractionary monetary policy lowers inflation in the short run and increases it in the long run. Also, lump-sum taxes affect output and inflation, as the literature on the fiscal theory of the price level suggests, but the effects are attenuated with respect to a pure fiscal regime.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50040.

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Date of creation: 16 Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50040
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Keywords: Time-varying policy rule coefficients; monetary and fiscal policy interactions; nonlinear state-space models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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Cited by:

  1. Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 21867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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