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Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching

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  • Eo, Yunjong

Abstract

I estimate DSGE models with recurring regime changes in monetary policy (inflation target and reaction coefficients), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep parameter values but make probabilistic inference about prevailing and future regimes based on Bayes’ rule. I develop an estimation method that takes these probabilistic inferences into account when relating state variables to observed data. In an application to postwar U.S. data, I find stronger support for regime switching in monetary policy than in technology or nominal rigidities. In addition, a model with regime switching policy that conforms to the long-run Taylor principle given in Davig and Leeper (2007) is preferred to a determinacy-indeterminacy model motivated by Lubik and Schorfheide (2004). These empirical results indicate that, even though a passive policy regime produced more volatility in the economy from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s, the economy can be explained by determinacy over the entire postwar period, implying no role for sunspot shocks in explaining the changes in volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Eo, Yunjong, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 13910, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13910
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-641, June.
    3. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    4. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    5. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    6. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    9. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekiros, Stelios & Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 216-227.
    2. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi & Stieler, Marleen, 2015. "Using nonlinear model predictive control for dynamic decision problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 112-133.
    3. Cúrdia, Vasco & Finocchiaro, Daria, 2013. "Monetary regime change and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773.
    4. Pawel Baranowski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    5. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    6. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Banking Intermediation: Evidence from the US," Working Papers 292, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    8. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting with Instabilities: an Application to DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Working Papers 201523, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian DSGE; Markov-switching; Monetary Policy; Indeterminacy; Long-run Taylor Principle; Bayesian Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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