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Indeterminacy in a forward‐looking regime switching model

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  • Roger E. A. Farmer
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

This paper considers the properties of Markov switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We discuss possible solution concepts for MSRE models, distinguishing between stationary and bounded equilibria. For the case of models with one variable we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniqueness of a bounded equilibrium and we relate this condition to an alternative, the “generalized Taylor principle,” suggested by Davig and Leeper. We provide examples of models with multiple bounded and multiple stationary equilibria which suggest that it might be more difficult to rule out non‐fundamental equilibria in MSRE models than in the single regime case where the Taylor principle is known to guarantee local uniqueness.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Indeterminacy in a forward‐looking regime switching model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 69-84, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijethy:v:5:y:2009:i:1:p:69-84
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1742-7363.2008.00094.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Barthélemy, J. & Marx, M., 2012. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: New Comment," Working papers 403, Banque de France.
    2. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    3. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    5. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time Variant Volatilities versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Jess Benhabib, 2009. "A Note on Regime Switching, Monetary Policy, and Multiple Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 14770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. William A. Branch & Troy A. Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Jesús Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2013. "Estimation and inference in threshold type regime switching models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 189-205, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 247-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kamihigashi, Takashi & Stachurski, John, 2016. "Seeking ergodicity in dynamic economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 900-924.
    12. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2020. "Time-varying cointegration with an application to the UK Great Ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
    14. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    15. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    17. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Exchange rate regime and household's choice of debt," MPRA Paper 54219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2011. "State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models," Sciences Po publications 347, Sciences Po.
    19. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "The econometrics of DSGE models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 3-49, March.
    20. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," CDMA Working Paper Series 200603, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Apr 2007.
    23. Reed, Jason R., 2019. "The forward premium puzzle and Markov-switching adaptive learning," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-17.
    24. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    25. Takashi Kamihigashiw & John Stachurski, 2014. "Seeking Ergodicity in Dynamic Economies," Working Papers 2014-402, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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