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Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts and the Great Moderation

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  • Zheng Liu
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

The possibility of regime shifts in monetary policy can have important effects on rational agents' expectation formation and equilibrium dynamics. In a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where the monetary policy rule switches between a dovish regime that accommodates inflation and a hawkish regime that stabilizes inflation, the expectation effect is asymmetric across regimes. Such an asymmetric effect makes it difficult but still possible to generate substantial reductions in the volatilities of inflation and output as the monetary policy switches from the dovish regime to the hawkish one.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts and the Great Moderation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2007-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Sources of the Great Moderation: Shocks, Frictions, or Monetary Policy?," Emory Economics 0811, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    2. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
    3. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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