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Inflation dynamics and regime shifts

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  • Lendvai, Julia

Abstract

This paper extends the New Keynesian model to allow for stochastic shifts in the monetary policy regime. Agents cannot observe the regime and use a Bayesian learning rule to make optimal inferences. Price setting is adapted to this environment: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence the current inflation rate through an indexation rule. No structural inflation persistence is assumed. We show that this model can capture stylized facts about short-run inflation dynamics both in periods of transition and in stable environments. The role of expectations increases after regime shifts. This creates a link between the degree of inflation persistence and the stability and transparency of monetary policy. Thereby, our model can explain observed changes in inflation persistence. JEL Classification: E30, E31, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Lendvai, Julia, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006684
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp684.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian learning; inflation dynamics; inflation persistence; regime shifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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