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The Impact Of Imperfect Credibility In A Transition To Price Stability

  • Anamaria Nicolae
  • Charles Nolan

In this paper we study the impact of a temporary lack of credibility in a transition to price stability. We quantify the effects of a period of disinflation on temporary output losses, and the impact of the lack of credibility on the optimal speed of disinflation. We demonstrate that the "disinflationary booms" found by Ball (1994) and Ireland (1997) may or may not disappear in an environment with imperfect credibility, depending on the speed of learning relative to the speed of disinflation. Finally, we enquire whether the speed of the Volcker disinflation was excessive or not.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 with number 102.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:102
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  1. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860, October.
  3. Benabou, Roland & Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1994. "On Inflation and Output with Costly Price Changes: A Simple Unifying Result," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 290-97, March.
  4. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
  6. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter N. Ireland, 1997. "Stopping inflations, big and small," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 759-782.
  8. Stefania Albanesi & V.V.Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2002. "Expectation traps and monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-02-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  11. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ireland, Peter N., 1995. "Optimal disinflationary paths," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1429-1448, November.
  13. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Laurence Ball, 1992. "Disinflation With Imperfect Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-46, September.
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