IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

How Are Inflation Targets Set?

  • Roman Horvath
  • Jakub Mateju

This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding on how inflation targets are set. For this reason, we first gather evidence from official central bank and government publications and from a questionnaire sent to central banks on how inflation targets are set; we then estimate the determinants of the level of inflation target in 19 inflation targeting countries using unbalanced panel interval regressions (to deal with the issue that targets are typically set as a range rather than as a point). Inflation targets are found to reflect macroeconomic fundamentals. Higher level as well as higher variability of inflation are associated with higher target. The setting of the inflation target is also found to have an important international dimension, as higher world inflation is positively correlated with inflation targets. Rapidly growing countries exhibit higher inflation targets. Our results also suggest that the larger width of inflation target is set in a more volatile macroeconomic environment. We find that central bank credibility is negatively associated with the level of inflation target, suggesting that less credible central banks are likely to recognize the risks related to anchoring inflation expectations at low levels. On the other hand, government party orientation does not matter even in less independent central banks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp426.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague in its series CERGE-EI Working Papers with number wp426.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp426
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 882, Politickych veznu 7, 111 21 Praha 1
Phone: (+420) 224 005 123
Fax: (+420) 224 005 333
Web page: http://www.cerge-ei.cz
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
  2. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, 08.
  4. Levin, Andrew T. & Natalucci, Fabio M. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 0383, European Central Bank.
  5. Baltensperger, Ernst & Fischer, Andreas M. & Jordan, Thomas J., 2007. "Strong goal independence and inflation targets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 88-105, March.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0094, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  7. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
  8. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, June.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2002. "Central bank structure, policy efficiency, and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-60.
  10. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 0537, European Central Bank.
  11. Bernard Laurens & Marco Arnone & Jean-François Segalotto, 2006. "The Measurement of Central Bank Autonomy; Survey of Models, Indicators, and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 06/227, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "No single definition of central bank independence is right for all countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 802-816, December.
  13. Christopher W. Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2008. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency; Evolution and Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 08/119, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Oecd, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-run Effects and Volatility Spillovers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 518, OECD Publishing.
  15. Alberto Alesina, 1988. "Macroeconomics and Politics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 13-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. Anamaria Nicolae & Charles Nolan, 2004. "The impact of imperfect credibility in a transition to price stability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 72, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  19. Caskey, John P, 1985. "Modeling the Formation of Price Expectations: A Bayesian Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 768-76, September.
  20. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2005. "What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/109, International Monetary Fund.
  21. David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, November.
  22. Jeffery D. Amato & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market and Transition Economies: Lessons after a Decade," Working Papers 132001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  23. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
  24. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Vega, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," MPRA Paper 838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Roland, Isabelle, 2008. "Finance and Growth: When Does Credit Really Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
  28. Taner Yigit & Banu Demir, 2007. "Announcements and Credibility under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 0705, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  29. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
  30. Yigit, Taner M., 2010. "Inflation targeting: An indirect approach to assess the direct impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1357-1368, November.
  31. Demir, Banu & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Announcements and credibility under inflation targeting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 249-253, August.
  32. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  33. Jeong, Jinook & Maddala, G S, 1996. "Testing the Rationality of Survey Data Using the Weighted Double-Bootstrapped Method of Moments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 296-302, May.
  34. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, June.
  35. Bernard Laurens & Martin Sommer & Marco Arnone & Jean-François Segalotto, 2007. "Central Bank Autonomy; Lessons From Global Trends," IMF Working Papers 07/88, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Roberto M. Billi & George A. Kahn, 2008. "What is the optimal inflation rate?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-28.
  37. Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
  38. Franta, Michal & Saxa, Branislav & Šmídková, Katerina, 2007. "Inflation persistence: euro area and new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0810, European Central Bank.
  39. Luiz De Mello & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1671-1690, December.
  40. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
  41. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob de Haan, 2010. "Inflation And Central Bank Independence: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 593-621, 09.
  42. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2010. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models," Working Papers 91, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  43. Taner Yigit, 2007. "Inflation Targeting : An Indirect Approach to Assess the Direct Impact," Working Papers 0706, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. Economic Logic blog

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jana Koudelkova)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.