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Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers


This paper uses multiple cointegration analysis to estimate simultaneously a monetary reaction function and the determinants of expected inflation for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. In addition, M-GARCH modeling is used to test for the presence of volatility spillovers between the monetary stance and inflation expectations. The analysis shows that there are long-term relationships between the interest rate, expected inflation, and the inflation target, and that greater volatility in the monetary stance increases the volatility of expected inflation in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1671-1690

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:8:p:1671-1690
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  1. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Alvaro José Riascos Villegas, 2004. "Sobre los Efectos de la Política Monetaria en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003511, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-61, September.
  8. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," NBER Working Papers 12515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Working Paper Series WP99-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Leonardo Leiderman & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/157, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Nolan, C. & Chadha, J.S., 1999. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching 'Monetary Mystique' in the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9921, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Vittorio Corbo & Oscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," Working Papers 51, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  14. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  17. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  18. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May.
  19. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
  20. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
  21. So, Raymond W., 2001. "Price and volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107.
  22. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia; Progress and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 04/166, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2003. "Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 383-399, October.
  24. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 105, Central Bank of Chile.
  25. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Functions and Transmission Mechanisms: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 001-020 Central Bank of Chile.
  26. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  27. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
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