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Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers

  • LUIZ DE MELLO
  • DIEGO MOCCERO

This paper uses multiple cointegration analysis to estimate simultaneously a monetary reaction function and the determinants of expected inflation for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. In addition, M-GARCH modeling is used to test for the presence of volatility spillovers between the monetary stance and inflation expectations. The analysis shows that there are long-term relationships between the interest rate, expected inflation, and the inflation target, and that greater volatility in the monetary stance increases the volatility of expected inflation in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00273.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1671-1690

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:8:p:1671-1690
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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