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Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?

  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina

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    Este trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre la no linealidad de la curva de Phillips en Colombia partiendo de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Así mismo, los resultados sugieren un desplazamiento de la curva hacia abajo a partir de 1999. De esta manera la economía colombiana puede haber encontrado un menor nivel de inflación bajo condiciones de pleno empleo de los factores. La técnica econométrica que se empleó para probar la hipótesis fue el Filtro de Kalman con párametro variable en el tiempo. Los aportes del trabajo al estado del arte del estudio de la curva de Phillips en Colombia son tres. Primero la técnica de estimación utilizada. Segundo se prueba la existencia de asimetrías a partir de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Finalmente se encuentra un nivel de UCI de inflación estable.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra281.pdf
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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 281.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:281
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    1. Alvaro Riascos, . "Dyanmic Response to Monetary Shocks in a Search Model of the Labor Market," Borradores de Economia 222, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alvaro Riascos, . "Monetary Policy Rules in a Search Model of the Labor Market," Borradores de Economia 221, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Raquel Bernal, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules In Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003251, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    6. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    7. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. repec:dgr:uvatin:2099013 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    10. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
    14. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1148-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
    18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter A. Diamond, 1989. "The Aggregate Matching Function," NBER Working Papers 3175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Byeongseon, Seo, 1998. "Statistical inference on cointegration rank in error correction models with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 339-385, August.
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