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Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?

  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina

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    Este trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre la no linealidad de la curva de Phillips en Colombia partiendo de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Así mismo, los resultados sugieren un desplazamiento de la curva hacia abajo a partir de 1999. De esta manera la economía colombiana puede haber encontrado un menor nivel de inflación bajo condiciones de pleno empleo de los factores. La técnica econométrica que se empleó para probar la hipótesis fue el Filtro de Kalman con párametro variable en el tiempo. Los aportes del trabajo al estado del arte del estudio de la curva de Phillips en Colombia son tres. Primero la técnica de estimación utilizada. Segundo se prueba la existencia de asimetrías a partir de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Finalmente se encuentra un nivel de UCI de inflación estable.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra281.pdf
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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 281.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:281
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    1. Blanchard, J.O., 1989. "The Aggregate Matching Function," Working papers 538, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
    3. Byeongseon, Seo, 1998. "Statistical inference on cointegration rank in error correction models with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 339-385, August.
    4. Bernal Raquel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor rules in a limited participation model," Working Paper Series WP-99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Alvaro J. Riascos, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in a Search Model of the Labor Market," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003250, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Álvaro Riascos, 2002. "Dynamic response to monetary shocks in a search model of the labor market," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
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    15. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
    16. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    18. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1148-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
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