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Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?

  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina

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    Este trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre la no linealidad de la curva de Phillips en Colombia partiendo de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Así mismo, los resultados sugieren un desplazamiento de la curva hacia abajo a partir de 1999. De esta manera la economía colombiana puede haber encontrado un menor nivel de inflación bajo condiciones de pleno empleo de los factores. La técnica econométrica que se empleó para probar la hipótesis fue el Filtro de Kalman con párametro variable en el tiempo. Los aportes del trabajo al estado del arte del estudio de la curva de Phillips en Colombia son tres. Primero la técnica de estimación utilizada. Segundo se prueba la existencia de asimetrías a partir de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Finalmente se encuentra un nivel de UCI de inflación estable.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 281.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:281
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    1. Alvaro J. Riascos, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in a Search Model of the Labor Market," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003250, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. repec:dgr:uvatin:2099013 is not listed on IDEAS
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    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter A. Diamond, 1989. "The Aggregate Matching Function," NBER Working Papers 3175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    17. Raquel Bernal, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules In Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003251, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    18. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
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