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Inflation Targeting In A Small Open Economy: The Colombian Case

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  • Franz Hamann

    ()

  • Juan Manuel Julio

    ()

  • Paulina Restrepo

    ()

  • Alvaro Jose Riascos Villegas

    ()

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of inflation targeting in small open economy. We calibrate the model to the Colombian economy and present the response of some macroeconomic variables to different types of shocks that are relevant for emerging economies. We also analyze the sensitivity of those responses to some key parameters. Furthermore, using simulated data from the model we study the ability of the model to capture the spectra, the phase and the coherence of observed output and inflation. We follow a frequency domain comparison methodology proposed by Diebold, Ohanian and Berkowitz (1998,[19]). The Colombian data is characterized by: first, cyclical inflation and output gap (as measured by Hodrick – Prescott filter) are dominated by periodic movements between 2 and 25 quarters with a peak between 10 and 12 quarters. The cross spectrum and coherence show results in the the same direction. Second, the coherence does not show any significant dominance of frequencies for the cross movements but the correlation jumps to 0,6 for periodic movements around 5 quarters. These facts are compared to the data simulated from the model. We conclude that the simulated data spectra and cross spectra do not differ statistically from the respective population quantities for, at least, frequencies beyond 0,05 . Which correspond to periodic movements of up to at least 10 quarters. The model spectra presents more persistence than the observed data the population coherence is captured for most frequencies but the ones around the peack of the model's theoretical coherence and very long run periodic movements. Subsequent research will address these issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Hamann & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo & Alvaro Jose Riascos Villegas, 2004. "Inflation Targeting In A Small Open Economy: The Colombian Case," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002855, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002855
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alvaroriascos & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2004. "Sobre Los Efectos Dela Politica Monetaria Encolombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 22(45), pages 172-221, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés González & Franz Hamann & Diego Rodríguez, 2016. "Macroprudential policies in a commodity exporting economy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 69-73 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementación, Uso e Interpretación del "Fan Chart"," Borradores de Economia 346, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, December.
    4. Paulina Restrepo Echavarría, 2005. "Disinflation Costs Under Inflation Targeting in Small Open Economy Economy," Borradores de Economia 328, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Franz Hamann & Jesús Bejarano & Diego Rodríguez, 2015. "Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices," Borradores de Economia 871, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Mauro Ferreira, "undated". "Debt Maturity in a Small Open Economy Under Inflation Target," EcoMod2007 23900024, EcoMod.
    7. Paulina Restrepo Echavarría, 2005. "Disinflation Costs Under Inflation Targeting In A Small Open Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002374, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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