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Inflation Targeting in a Samll Open Economy: The Colombian Case

  • Franz Hamann Salcedo

    ()

  • Juan Manuel Julio

    ()

  • Paulina Restrepo

    ()

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of inflation targeting in small open economy. We calibrate the model to the Colombian economy and present the response of some macroeconomic variables to different types of shocks that are relevant for emerging economies. We also analyze the sensitivity of those responses to some key parameters. Furthermore, using simulated data from the model we study the ability of the model to capture the spectra, the phase and the coherence of observed output and inflation. We follow a frequency domain comparison methodology proposed by Diebold, Ohanian and Berkowitz (1998,[19]). The Colombian data is characterized by: first, cyclical inflation and output gap (as measured by Hodrick – Prescott filter) are dominated by periodic movements between 2 and 25 quarters with a peak between 10 and 12 quarters. The cross spectrum and coherence show results in the the same direction. Second, the coherence does not show any significant dominance of frequencies for the cross movements but the correlation jumps to 0,6 for periodic movements around 5 quarters. These facts are compared to the data simulated from the model. We conclude that the simulated data spectra and cross spectra do not differ statistically from the respective population quantities for, at least, frequencies beyond 0,05 . Which correspond to periodic movements of up to at least 10 quarters. The model spectra presents more persistence than the observed data the population coherence is captured for most frequencies but the one around the peak of the models's theoretical coherence and very long run periodic movements. Subsequent research will address these issues.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 308.

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  1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  2. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
  3. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
  4. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 841-867, November.
  7. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 10253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data," Staff Report 243, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Luis F. Melo & Álvaro Riascos, 2004. "Sobre los efectos de la política monetaria en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 172-221, Junio.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  14. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, . "The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  15. Nelson, E., 1998. "Sluggish inflation and optimizing models of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 303-322, July.
  16. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
  17. Diego M. Vásquez, 2003. "Mecanismo De Cobertura Para El Riesgo De Tasa De Interés Real De Los Bancos Hipotecarios Colombianos," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003189, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  18. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, . "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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