IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Gómez

    ()

  • Juan Manuel Julio

Abstract

Colombia has been on a steady disinflation path since the early 1990s. The paper presents a model of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Colombia, in order to examine this disinflation. The model is used to describe the evolution of inflation in response to shocks to the terms of trade, the risk premium, across different monetary policy rules; and in particular, under different assumptions about the formation of inflation expectations. We then ilustrate the behaviour of the economy under a permanent shift to the inflation target and quantify the sacrifice ratio under different kinds of formation of inflation expectations. This helps us to judge to what extent the shift towards a more forward-looking wage and price setting affects the disinflation process and its cost. Finaly, we estimate the welfare gains from disinflation and provide a inflation forecast for Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra168.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanly Fischer, 1992. "Inflación moderada," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 11(21), pages 7-68, Junio.
    4. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy In The Nineties: Capital Flows And Foreign Exchange Regimes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003575, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 733-748.
    6. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Esteban Jadresic, 1996. "Wage Indexation and the Cost of Disinflation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 796-825, December.
    8. Martha López, 2001. "Seigniorage And The Welfare Cost Of Inflation In Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(39), pages 115-131, June.
    9. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    11. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-91, January.
    13. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995. "Growth and the effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November.
    14. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1992. "La inflación moderada," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 5-70, January-J.
    15. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    16. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Inflation and growth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 153-169.
    17. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
    18. Sjaastad, Larry A., 1998. "On exchange rates, nominal and real," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-439, June.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    20. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1996. "Inflation, growth, and financial intermediation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 41-58.
    21. Miguel A Savastano & Paul R Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1990. "Effects of Macroeconomic Policies on Sectoral Prices," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 4(1), pages 55-79, January.
    23. Esteban Jadresic, 1996. "Wage Indexation and the Cost of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 96/48, International Monetary Fund.
    24. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia; Progress and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 04/166, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. José Gómez-González & Fernando Grosz, 2007. "Evidence of a Bank Lending Channel for Argentina and Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(129), pages 109-126.
    4. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2003. "El Canal de Oferta Agregada en un Modelo de Mecanismos de Transmisión de la Política Monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 241, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda, 2003. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia And The Cost Of Disinflation," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, June.
    6. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementación, Uso e Interpretación del "Fan Chart"," Borradores de Economia 346, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Miguel Urrutia & Marc Hofstetter & Franz Hamann, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    10. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
    11. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Javier Gómez, "undated". "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version," Borradores de Economia 198a, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Miguel Urrutia & Marc Hofstetter & Franz Hamann, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Franz Hamann Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in a Samll Open Economy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Rodrigo Avella, 2001. "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Jesus Otero & Manuel Ramirez, 2002. "On the determinants of the inflation rate in Colombia: a disequilibrium market approach," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003296, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    19. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.