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Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation

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  • Javier Gómez

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

Abstract

Colombia has been on a steady disinflation path since the early 1990s. The paper presents a model of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Colombia, in order to examine this disinflation. The model is used to describe the evolution of inflation in response to shocks to the terms of trade, the risk premium, across different monetary policy rules; and in particular, under different assumptions about the formation of inflation expectations. We then ilustrate the behaviour of the economy under a permanent shift to the inflation target and quantify the sacrifice ratio under different kinds of formation of inflation expectations. This helps us to judge to what extent the shift towards a more forward-looking wage and price setting affects the disinflation process and its cost. Finaly, we estimate the welfare gains from disinflation and provide a inflation forecast for Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Gómez, "undated". "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version," Borradores de Economia 198nv, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Javier Gómez., 2003. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 21(43), pages 66-85, June.
    4. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia; Progress and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 04/166, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2003. "El Canal De Oferta Agregada En Un Modelo De Mecanismos De Transmisión De La Política Monetaria En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002461, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementación, Uso e Interpretación del "Fan Chart"," Borradores de Economia 346, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda, 2003. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia And The Cost Of Disinflation," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, June.
    9. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    10. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
    11. José Gómez-González & Fernando Grosz, 2007. "Evidence of a Bank Lending Channel for Argentina and Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(129), pages 109-126.
    12. Rodrigo Avella, 2001. "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    14. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Jesus Otero & Manuel Ramirez, 2002. "On the determinants of the inflation rate in Colombia: a disequilibrium market approach," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003296, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    16. Franz Hamann Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in a Samll Open Economy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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