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The Optimality of the US and Euro Area Taylor Rule

Author

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  • Ferhat MIHOUBI
  • Pascal JACQUINOT

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the optimality of the monetary authorities reaction function in the two-area medium size model MARCOS (US and euro areas). The parameters and the horizons of output gap and inflation expectations of the Taylor rule are computed in order to minimise a loss function of the monetary authorities. However, investigating the optimality of the Taylor rule in the context of a large scale macroeconomic model raises several difficulties: the model is non-linear and all the state variables potentially enter the optimal monetary policy rule. Furthermore, the optimality of the Taylor rule is assessed by the minimisation of the loss function under the constraint of a large forward-looking model. To overcome these problems, Black, Macklem and Rose [1998] propose a stochastic simulation based method which has been applied to single-country macroeconomic models. To study the optimality of the Taylor rule in the case of a two-area model, we suppose that the economy is stochastically hit by numerous shocks (supply, demand, monetary, exchange rate and world demand) in each area and simulate MARCOS stochastically.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferhat MIHOUBI & Pascal JACQUINOT, 2004. "The Optimality of the US and Euro Area Taylor Rule," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 220, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacquinot, P. & Mihoubi, F., 2000. "Modele a anticipations rationnelles de la conjoncture simulee : MARCOS," Working papers 78, Banque de France.
    2. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income, and Liquidity Constraints: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 374-382, September.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    5. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:imf:imfops:164 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    10. Drew, Aaron & Hunt, Benjamin, 2000. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 143-160.
    11. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacquinot, P. & Mihoubi, F., 2003. "L’apport des modèles de la nouvelle génération à l’analyse économique, l’exemple de MARCOS," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 117, pages 63-84.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Computational Techniques; International Policy Transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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