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QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model


  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in 't Veld


QUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the Member States of the European Union and their interaction with the rest of the world. The paper presents a new version of the QUEST model which is now considerably modified with respect to its theoretical structure. It first presents a model description for the following sectors: household behaviour, firm behaviour and government. Then, it proposes the markets and prices equations. The second section contains standard simulations. It first considers monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks, then an example of a productivity shock.II/511/97-ENQUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the member states of the European Union and their interactions with the rest of the world, especially with the United States and Japan. The focus of the model is on the transmission of the effects of economic policy both on the domestic and the international economy. The model was primarily constructed to serve as a tool for policy simulation; less emphasis was put on its ability to serve as a forecasting tool. Given the wide coverage of the model it must necessarily be highly aggregated. A high degree of aggregation and foundation of the specification in current macroeconomic theory also helps in interpreting and understanding the results of the simulations. Finally simplicity also facilitates the solution of the model and reduces the time and memory requirements of the computer-simulations. The new model contains structural models for the EU member states, the US and Japan and distinguishes 10 additional countries/regions in trade feedback models in order to model trade interactions with the rest of the world.Compared to the former version of the QUEST model, which was presented in European Economy No. 47 (1991), the new model is now considerably modified with respect to its theoretical structure. The previous version of QUEST was deeply rooted in the Keynesian tradition of econometric model building, strongly stressing the demand side of the economy and modelling consumer and investment behaviour in a backward looking fashion. In the new version an attempt was made to base the behavioural equations more strongly on principles of dynamic optimisation of private households and firms. That makes the model substantially more forward looking. Also the supply side is now more explicitly modelled. The present model is also closed with respect to stock-flow interactions. Those stock variables which can be identified on a macroeconomic level such as physical capital, net foreign assets, money and government debt are endogenously determined and wealth effects are allowed to influence savings, production and investment decisions of private households, firms and the government. Moreover, financial linkages between national economies are now more explicitly modelled. In the current version it is assumed that assets determined in different currencies are perfect substitutes - up to an exogenous risk premium. Consistent modelling of international trade and financial linkages also require that at each instant two adding-up constraints hold: trade balances and net foreign asset positions sum to zero. Also the long run properties of the model are now systematically explored.Apart from simulations related to the Commission's short and medium term projections, the model has been intensively used to analyse the impact of the Maastricht criteria on growth and employment and the long run effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in Europe (e.g. Bayar et al., 1997a). Related to this, the model was used to study the impact of monetary policy on the success of government expenditure cuts (Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997a), and the macroeconomic effects of various tax reforms (Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997b) and VAT harmonisation (Bayar, Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997). The model has also been used to assess the employment and growth effects of the Trans European Transport Networks (European Commission, 1996), while the models for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have been used to look at the macroeconomic effects of the Structural Funds (Roeger, 1996b).

Suggested Citation

  • Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 1997. "QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 123, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0123

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, June.
    2. Peter Howitt, 1988. "Business Cycles With Costly Search and Recruiting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 147-165.
    3. Werner Roeger & Jan Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2010. "Fiscal consolidation in Germany," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 45(6), pages 364-371, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Jacquinot & Ferhat Mihoubi, 2001. "Modèle à Anticipations Rationnellesde la COnjoncture Simulée : MARCOS," Documents de recherche 01-20, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    2. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    3. Loïc Cadiou & Stéphanie Guichard & Mathilde Maurel, 1999. "La diversité des marchés du travail en Europe : Quelles conséquences pour l'Union Monétaire," Working Papers 1999-11, CEPII research center.
    4. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger, 2001. "Potential Output: Measurement Methods, "New" Economy Influences and Scenarios for 2001-2010 - A comparison of the EU-15 and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 150, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Jan In 'T Veld, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Anger, Annela & Köhler, Jonathan, 2010. "Including aviation emissions in the EU ETS: Much ado about nothing? A review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 38-46, January.
    7. Elena Flores & Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini, 2005. "The framework for fiscal policy in EMU: What future after five years of experience?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 223, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Marco Ratto & Riccardo Girardi, 2004. "Bayesian Estimation of Total Investment Expenditures For Romanian Economy using DYNARE," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 151, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Loïc Cadiou & Stéphanie Guichard & Mathilde Maurel, 2000. "Disparités institutionnelles et flexibilité des marchés du travail dans l'UE," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 332(1), pages 49-63.
    10. Helmut Hofer & Karl Pichelmann & Andreas-Ulrich Schuh, 2001. "Price and quantity adjustments in the Austrian labour market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 581-592.
    11. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A global VAR approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 661, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/711 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Medeiros, João, 2000. "Endogenous Versus Exogenous Growth Facing a Fertility Shock," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. A. Bayar & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "Determinants of private consumption," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 135, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. J¨¹rgen Roth & Simon G. Fauser, 2011. "Reaction Patterns of German Regional Labour Markets to Macroeconomic and Policy-induced Shocks¡ª A Comparative Analysis," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 87-103, February.
    17. JACQUINOT Pascal & MIHOUBI Ferhat, "undated". "The Optimality of the Taylor Rule in MARCOS: Some Deterministic and Stochastic Experiments," EcoMod2003 330700073, EcoMod.
    18. Richard Johnson, 2001. "Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    19. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
    20. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 282, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Stéphanie Guichard & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2001. "Comparaison de la formation des salaires dans un panel de pays industrialisés," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 37-49.

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