Income Growth in the 21st century : forecasts with an overlapping generations model
We forecast income growth over the periode 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible t changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010-2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing its gap with US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/econ
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & James Sefton & Martin Weale, 1998.
"Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests,"
9811, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Sefton, James & Weale, Martin, 2001. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 93-128, January.
- Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & James Sefton & Martin Weale, 1999. "Simulating the Transmission of Wealth Inequity via Bequests," NBER Working Papers 7183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boucekkine, Raouf & Le Van, Cuong, 1996. "Checking for Saddlepoint Stability: An Easy Test," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 317-30, November.
- INGENUE & Michel Aglietta, 2001. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Pension Reforms in Europe: an Investigation with the INGENUE World Model," Working Papers 2001-17, CEPII research center.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
- Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
- Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
- Miles, David, 1999.
"Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
- Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- DE LA CROIX, David & DOCQUIER, FrÃ©dÃ©ric, 2003.
"Diverging patterns of education premium and school attendance in France and the US: a Walrasian view,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frédéric, 2003. "Diverging Patterns of Education Premium and School Attendance in France and the US: A Walrasian View," IZA Discussion Papers 846, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- David, de la Croix & Frédéric Docquier, 2003. "Diverging patterns of education premium and school attendance in France and the US : a Walrasian view," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003.
"The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series
dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Equipe INGENUE, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0116, CEPREMAP.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Backsolving with a Particular Nonlinear Form for the Decision Rule," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-47, January.
- Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002.
"Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
- Bouzahzah, Mohamed & de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frédéric, 2000. "Policy Reforms and Growth in Computable OLG Economies," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000027, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- BOUZAHZAH, Mohamed & DE LA CROIX, David & DOCQUIER, FrÃ©dÃ©ric, . "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1669, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
- Georg Hirte, 2002. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(1), pages 81-106, 02.
- Broer, Peter D. & Lassila, Jukka, . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23.
- Psacharopoulos, George, 1993.
"Returns to investment in education : a global update,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1067, The World Bank.
- Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
- Equipe INGENUE, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2001-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Mireille Laroche & Marcel Mérette, . "Measuring Human Capital in Canada," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2000-05, Department of Finance Canada.
- David Carey & Harry Tchilinguirian, 2000. "Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
- Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
- Wasmer, Etienne, 2001. "Measuring human capital in the labor market: The supply of experience in 8 OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 861-874, May.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jagadeesh Gokhale & Benjamin R. Page & John Sturrock, 1999. "Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 489-518 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.