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Income Growth in the 21st century : forecasts with an overlapping generations model

Author

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  • David, DE LA CROIX

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics and CORE)

  • Frédéric DOCQUIER

    (FNRS and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)

  • Philippe, LIEGEOIS

    (CEPS, INSTEAD, Luxemburg)

Abstract

We forecast income growth over the periode 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible t changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010-2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing its gap with US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.

Suggested Citation

  • David, DE LA CROIX & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Philippe, LIEGEOIS, 2007. "Income Growth in the 21st century : forecasts with an overlapping generations model," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007029, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002. "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    2. Xavier Chojnicki & Frédéric Docquier & Lionel Ragot, 2011. "Should the US have locked heaven’s door?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 317-359, January.
    3. Marchiori, Luca, 2011. "Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2100-2120, September.
    4. Luca Marchiori & Patrice Pieretti & Benteng Zou, 2010. "The impact of migration on origin countries: a numerical analysis," CREA Discussion Paper Series 10-06, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    5. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Forecast; Computable General Equilibrium; Education; Experience;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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