IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jpbect/v6y2004i4p607-636.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?

Author

Listed:
  • David De La Croix
  • Géraldine Mahieu
  • Alexandra Rillaers

Abstract

We analyze the impact of a drop in fertility on the optimal allocation of resources in an overlapping generations economy where old workers care about leisure. We also characterize optimal dynamics and study the decentralization of the optimum by means of inter‐generational transfers and/or public debt. We conclude that the policy recommendations of postponing retirement is fragile and depend on preferences and technologies. Also, even when the optimal adjustment of public debt goes into the expected direction in the long run—i.e., public debt should decrease—this may not be the case during the transition.

Suggested Citation

  • David De La Croix & Géraldine Mahieu & Alexandra Rillaers, 2004. "How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 607-636, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:6:y:2004:i:4:p:607-636
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9779.2004.00183.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2004.00183.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2004.00183.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Michel & Pierre Pestieau, 2013. "Social Security And Early Retirement In An Overlapping-Generations Growth Model," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 723-737, November.
    2. Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-283, June.
    3. Deardorff, Alan V, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Comment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 510-515, June.
    4. Bertrand Crettez & Patricia Le Maitre, 2002. "Optimal age of retirement and population growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 737-755.
    5. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    6. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    7. Marchand, Maurice & Michel, Philippe & Pestieau, Pierre, 1996. "Intergenerational transfers in an endogenous growth model with fertility changes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-48, April.
    8. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    10. Boadway, Robin & Marchand, Maurice & Pestieau, Pierre, 1991. "Pay-as-You-Go Social Security in a Changing Environment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(4), pages 257-280, November.
    11. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1997. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 29-42, January.
    12. Michel, Philippe, 1990. "Some Clarifications on the Transversality Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 705-723, May.
    13. Atkinson, A B & Sandmo, A, 1980. "Welfare Implications of the Taxation of Savings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 529-549, September.
    14. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Agreement and Evaluations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 516-525, June.
    15. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    17. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:7-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Huang, He & İmrohorogˇlu, Selahattin & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 7-44, January.
    19. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    20. Peters, Wolfgang, 1991. "Public Pensions in Transition: An Optimal Policy Path," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 155-175, May.
    21. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-538, October.
    23. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1991. "Optimal Pension Funding with Demographic Instability and Endogenous Returns on Investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 137-154, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Croix & Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "How powerful is demography? The Serendipity Theorem revisited," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 899-922, July.
    2. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2011. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of population aging in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5519, The World Bank.
    3. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    4. Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard & Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2010. "Reform and backlash to reform : economic effects of ageing and retirement policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5470, The World Bank.
    5. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    6. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2010. "Labor supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5382, The World Bank.
    7. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
    8. Jørgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2009. "Labour supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Discussion Papers on Economics 1/2009, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    9. Andersen, Torben M., 2012. "Fiscal sustainability and demographics – Should we save or work more?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 264-280.
    10. Alessandro Sommacal, 2006. "Pension systems and intragenenerational redistribution when labor supply is endogenous," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 379-406, July.
    11. Anna Batyra & David de la Croix & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens, 2016. "Structural changes in the labor market and the rise of early retirement in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 16-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    12. Andersen, Torben M, 2008. "Fiscal Sustainability and Demographics - Should We Save or Work More?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Batyra, Anna & de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Declining bargaining power of workers and the rise of early retirement in Europe," GIAM Working Papers 13-6, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luciano Fanti, 2012. "Consequences of a boost of mandatory retirement age on long run income and PAYG pensions," Discussion Papers 2012/149, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Fernando Perera-Tallo, 2012. "Optimal Retirement Age and Aging Population," 2012 Meeting Papers 728, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    4. Abío, G. & Mahieu, G. & Patxot, C., 2004. "On the optimality of PAYG pension systems in an endogenous fertility setting," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 35-62, March.
    5. Luciano Fanti, 2014. "Raising the Mandatory Retirement Age and its Effect on Long-run Income and Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) Pensions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 619-645, November.
    6. Pascal Belan, 2001. "Transition vers un système par capitalisation dans un modèle de croissance endogène," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(6), pages 1205-1226.
    7. Luciano Fanti, 2015. "Growth, PAYG pension systems crisis and mandatory age of retirement," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1160-1167.
    8. Peter J. Stauvermann & Jin Hu, 2018. "What can China Expect from an Increase of the Mandatory Retirement Age?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 229-246, May.
    9. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    10. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    11. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    12. Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 1996. "Aging and political decision making on public pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 141-158, June.
    13. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Eduardo L. Giménez & Mikel Pérez-Nievas, 2010. "Millian Efficiency with Endogenous Fertility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 154-187.
    14. Momota, Akira & Sakagami, Tomoya & Shibata, Akihisa, 2019. "Reexamination of the Serendipity Theorem from the stability viewpoint," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 43-70, March.
    15. Yingzhu Yang & Rong Zheng & Lexiang Zhao, 2021. "Population Aging, Health Investment and Economic Growth: Based on a Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Schweizer, Urs, 1996. "Endogenous fertility and the Henry George Theorem," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 209-228, August.
    17. Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 1995. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Other publications TiSEM 4a645594-df72-4116-8a90-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Sagiri Kitao, 2010. "Social Security, benefit claiming, and labor force participation: a quantitative general equilibrium approach," Staff Reports 436, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Luisa Fuster & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 113-145.
    21. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe [Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 141-158, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:6:y:2004:i:4:p:607-636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/apettea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.