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Reform and backlash to reform : economic effects of ageing and retirement policy

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  • Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard
  • Jorgensen, Ole Hagen

Abstract

Using a stochastic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper studies (i) the effects on both extensive and intensive labor supply responses to changes in fertility rates, and (ii) the potential of a retirement reform to mitigate the effects of fertility changes on labor supply. In order to neutralize the effects on effective labor supply of a fertility decline, a retirement reform, designed to increase labor supply at the extensive margin, is found to simultaneously reduce labor supply at the intensive margin. This backlash to retirement reform requires the statutory retirement age to increase more than proportionally to fertility changes in order to compensate for endogenous responses of the intensity of labor supply. The robustness of this result is checked against alternative model specifications and calibrations relevant to an economic region such as Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard & Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2010. "Reform and backlash to reform : economic effects of ageing and retirement policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5470, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5470
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David De La Croix & Géraldine Mahieu & Alexandra Rillaers, 2004. "How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 607-636, October.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2013. "Efficiency and equity implications of oil windfalls in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6597, The World Bank.
    2. Murrugarra, Edmundo, 2011. "Employability and productivity among older workers : apolicy framework and evidence from Latin America," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 63230, The World Bank.
    3. Michele Gragnolati & Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Policies; Labor Markets; Pensions&Retirement Systems; Economic Theory&Research; Population Policies;
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