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Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

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Abstract

El “Fan Chart” representa la funcion de probabilidades de los valores futuros de una variable, condicional a la informacion conocida en el presente. En el caso del Informe de Inflacion el “Fan Chart” cumple con dos objetivos: Primero, comunicar al publico las previsiones de la autoridad monetaria sobre la evolucion futura de la inflacion con base en el “mejor conocimiento” actual de la economia. Este proposito esta relacionado con la transparencia del esquema de metas de inflacion y con la credibilidad de las políticas para alcanzar dichas metas. Y segundo, organizar la forma como la autoridad monetaria aborda el problema de pronosticar la inflacion, lo cual tiene que ver con el desarrollo del Informe de Inflación y su distribución temática. En esta nota se describe en detalle la implementacion actual del “Fan Chart” que utiliza el Banco de la Republica para su Informe de Inflacion, se presenta un ejemplo que ilustran adecuada utilizacion, se describe la manera como este se debe interpretar y se describe el uso de un programa que facilita su aplicacion. Con esto, se persigue desmitifcar el uso e interpretacion del “Fan Chart”.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002815, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002815
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra346.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
    3. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, EconWPA.
    4. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2003. "Transmission Mechanism and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia's Desinflation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 109-133, December.
    5. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Franz Hamann Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in a Samll Open Economy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Vega, Marco, 2003. "Reportando la distribución de la proyección de inflación," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, June.
    2. Juan Manuel Julio, 2007. "The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004294, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Julio, Juan Manuel, 2009. "The HPD Fan ChartT With Data Revision," MPRA Paper 29141, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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