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The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation

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  • Juan Manuel Julio Román

Abstract

Our current implementation of the Fan Chart follows the original Britton Fisher and Whitley (1998) and Blix - Sellin (1998) proposal in which the inputs enter at the fourth and ninth quarters and are distributed within the forecasting horizon according to pre established weights. This procedure does not allow enough flexibility to control the shape of the distribution at the shorter end of the horizon when more reliable information is available. On the other hand, no published material presents the details of the Fan Chart computation. In this note all the technical details of the new implementation are described. This implementation provides more flexibility than the previous one since it permits the inputs to be entered on a quarterly basis instead of on a yearly basis. A Visual Basic for Excel program is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2007. "The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation," Borradores de Economia 468, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:468
    DOI: 10.32468/be.468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," Borradores de Economia 2815, Banco de la Republica.
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    1. -, 2010. "Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2990 edited by Eclac.
    2. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Leonardo Villar-Gómez & Javier Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Wilmar Cabrera & Hernando Vargas, 2023. "The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: lessons learnt and challenges for the future," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 87-112, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fan Chart; Forecasting Distribution; Balance of Risks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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