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The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

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Abstract

Abstract. Our current implementation of the Fan Chart follows the originalBritton Fisher and Whitley [2] and Blix and Sellin [1] proposal in which theinputs enter at the fourth and ninth quarters and are distributed within theforecasting horizon according to pre established weights. This procedure doesnot allow enough °exibility to control the shape of the distribution at theshorter end of the horizon when more reliable information is available. Onthe other hand, no published material presents the details of the Fan Chartcomputation. In this note all the technical details of the new implementationare described. This implementation provides more °exibility than the previousone since it permits the inputs to be entered on a quarterly basis instead ofon a yearly basis. A Visual Basic for Excel program is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio, 2007. "The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004294, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004294
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    1. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementación, Uso e Interpretación del "Fan Chart"," Borradores de Economia 346, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Cited by:

    1. -, 2010. "Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2990 edited by Eclac, OCTOBER.
    2. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    Keywords

    Fan Chart; Forecasting Distribution; Balance of Risks.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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