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The HPD Fan ChartT With Data Revision


  • Julio, Juan Manuel


The current implementation of the Fan Chart displays equal tail probability bands and do not take into account that the variable of interest may be subject to data revision. In this note I propose the use of Highest Probability Density, HPD, bands and include flexibility to display the risks related to data revision. Click here to obtain a Visual Basic for Excel routine. Please save the the as FanChartGdpGrowth.xls and enable Macros to run the program.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio, Juan Manuel, 2009. "The HPD Fan ChartT With Data Revision," MPRA Paper 29141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29141

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," Borradores de Economia 2815, Banco de la Republica.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Edgar Caicedo-García & Julián Alonso Cárdenas-Cárdenas, 2020. "Entendiendo, Modelando y Pronosticando el Efecto de “El Niño” Sobre los Precios de los Alimentos: El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1102, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    2. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2007. "The Fan Chart: The Technical Details Of The New Implementation," Borradores de Economia 468, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item


    Fan Chart; Forecasting Distribution; HPD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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