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Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices

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  • Franz Hamann
  • Jesús Bejarano
  • Diego Rodríguez

Abstract

The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. We calibrate and estimate a variety of real and monetary dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models using Colombian historical data. We find that, in these artificial economies the macroeconomic effects can be large but vary depending on the structure of the economy. The main channels through which the shock passes to the economy come from the increased country risk premium, the real exchange rate depreciation, the sectoral reallocation of resources from nontradables to tradables and the sluggish adjustment of prices. Contrary to the conventional findings in the literature of the financial accelerator mechanism for single-good closed economies, in multiple-goods small open economies the financial accelerator does not play a significant role in magnifying macroeconomic fluctuations. The sectoral reallocation from nontradable to tradables diminishes the financial amplification mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Hamann & Jesús Bejarano & Diego Rodríguez, 2015. "Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012615, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:012615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2015-03-30 00:52:50

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    Cited by:

    1. Alberola, Enrique & Benigno, Gianluca, 2017. "Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 87-106.
    2. Jesús Bejarano & Franz Hamann & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Diego Rodríguez, 2016. "Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(3), pages 239-261.
    3. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013829, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Leonardo Barreto, 2018. "Nonconventional monetary policy in a regime-switching model with endogenous financial crises," Documentos CEDE 016382, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    5. Enrique A. López-Enciso & Hernando Vargas-Herrera & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "La estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia. Una visión histórica," Borradores de Economia 952, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; precautionary savings; monetary policy; credit; leverage; financial accelerator; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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